Posts Tagged ‘darvas trading’
Knowing Darvas Ghost Boxes
March 6th, 2010
Modern Darvas uses a technique called ghost boxes to handle some other aspects of modern volatility. In Darvas’ time, stock market rallies that drove up the price rapidly were rare. However, in modern times, news of breakout stocks travels much faster, leading to higher volumes of trades in shorter periods of time.
Ghost boxes are used when a stock will break out of a box and not form another box for some time. The danger here is that the Darvas method dictates that a stock should be bought when it breaks out of its box and the stop-loss order should be set at the bottom of the box. But if no valid Darvas box forms for some time after the stock breaks out and continues to rise, there is the potential that a trader could lose a great deal of profit. Darvas was very strict about moving his stop-loss orders. He felt that the box method should be the only influence that set the stop-loss orders. However, Darvas’ method needs to be adapted slightly to account for today’s rapidly moving markets.
The response to this modern market tendency is to use what is known as a ghost box (we’ll call it GB from here on in). The first issue to consider when using a GB is to decide whether or not the conditions are right to apply one. It is important to be confident that the stock is going to continue the Darvas trend. Although if a trader is wrong and applies a GB, this will still help to preserve his profits.
A GB is applied by first measuring the height of the initial Darvas box. Then, a GB is formed that is the same height, and the bottom corner is applied to the top of the initial box. Once this is accomplished, the stop-loss order is updated to be the bottom of the GB.
The GB is simply a means of applying the most recently confirmed volatility range to a stock. In modern markets, stocks will often rally unexpectedly as a result of breaking news or instability in certain parts of the world. The job of the GB is to ensure that a sudden rally and recession does not leave the trader caught unprepared. One of the advantages of the Darvas method is that it requires minimal management under all circumstances. The GB uarantees that even while there is no valid Darvas box to guide the stop-loss order the trader’s profit will be protected.
If a rally happens when no valid Darvas box forms, a GB that raises the stop-loss as the stock rises is a reasonable solution. The height of the GB should be the same as the height of the last valid Darvas box. As the price continues to rise, the trader can continue to stack the ghost boxes. Of course, the same rules that apply to the Modern Darvas boxes apply to ghost boxes.
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What Makes The Mad Darvas Method Work
February 21st, 2010
Nicolas Darvas is the creator of what he coinedcallsdisagreed with old the Wall Street adage “buy low, sell high.” These words of wisdom are based on buying stocks because of their valuation. A stock with a low price and a high valuation is, theoretically, supposed to rise to what it is valued at. However Darvas believed that in order to make a profit, a trader had to “buy high, sell higher.” This concept went strongly against most traders’ view of choosing stocks, which is often done by judging stocks on their value. Unfortunately the valuation method is very difficult and complex, and is often incorrect.
A trader using the valuation method is essentially to pick a stock that looks more valuable than it actually is. Traders who use this method are often highly educated individuals who have lots of time in which to analyze stocks and their indicators. Darvas’ method, on the other hand, requires minimal knowledge and a minimal time commitment.
The objective of the Darvas box method is to buy high and sell higher. This does not mean it is a strategy of buying new highs. Simply buying new highs is sure way to lose an investment. The Darvas method first confirms that each new high is part of a bullish trend, and not simply part of an unsupported, short lived rally. The volatility range that is createdby each box helps to indicate the stock’s strength or weakness.
When a stock is strong, it will break out of the top of the box. When the stock is weak, it will fall out of the bottom.
The most popular criticism of Darvas’ box method is that he designed it for the market that existed in the 1950s. But today’s market still operates on the same principles as it did in the past. Traders still buy and sell with the same herd mentality no matter what year it is. The biggest difference between the markets of today and the markets of Darvas’ time is the technology that drives trading.
During Darvas’ time, all trading was done with paper orders or on the telephone. Stockbrokers were the only ones who could trade stock on the market. Today trading is done almost entirely electronically, and anyone with an Internet connection can place an order with an online broker. That same order can be executed almost instantly. Now thousands more trades can take place in day than could happen in Darvas’ time. With more trades taking place, the market has become more volatile. In addition, technology has made the stock market open to more people, resulting in even more trades than in Darvas’ time.
What About Darvas Ghost Boxes?
February 20th, 2010
Modern Darvas also uses a technique called ghost boxes to handle some other aspects of modern volatility. In Darvas’ time, stock market rallies that drove up the price rapidly were rare. However, in modern times, news of breakout stocks travels much faster, leading to higher volumes of trades in shorter periods of time.
Ghost boxes are often used when a stock will break out of a box and not form another box for some time. The danger here is that the Darvas method dictates that a stock should be bought when it breaks out of its box and the stop-loss order should be set at the bottom of the box. But if no valid Darvas box forms for some time after the stock breaks out and continues to rise, there is the potential that a trader could lose a great deal of profit. Darvas was very strict about moving his stop-loss orders. He felt that the box method should be the only influence that set the stop-loss orders. However, Darvas’ method needs to be adapted slightly to account for today’s rapidly moving markets.
The solution to this modern market tendency is to use what is known as a ghost box (we’ll call it GB from here on in). The first issue to consider when using a GB is to decide whether or not the conditions are right to apply one. It is important to be confident that the stock is going to continue the Darvas trend. Although if a trader is wrong and applies a GB, this will still help to preserve his profits.
A GB is applied by measuring the height of the initial Darvas box first. Then, a GB is formed that is the same height, and the bottom corner is applied to the top of the initial box. Once this is accomplished, the stop-loss order is updated to be the bottom of the GB.
The GB is simply a means of using the most recently confirmed volatility range to a stock. In modern markets, stocks will often rally unexpectedly as a result of breaking news or instability in certain parts of the world. The job of the GB is to ensure that a sudden rally and recession does not leave the trader caught unprepared. One of the advantages of the Darvas trading method is that it requires minimal management under all circumstances. The GB uarantees that even while there is no valid Darvas box to guide the stop-loss order the trader’s profit will be protected.
If a rally occurs when no valid Darvas box forms, a GB that raises the stop-loss as the stock rises is a reasonable solution. The height of the GB should be the same as the height of the last valid Darvas box. As the price continues to rise, the trader can continue to stack the ghost boxes. Of course, the same rules that apply to the Modern Darvas boxes apply to ghost boxes.
